Whale / Insider Detection

Scans Polymarket for unusually large trades that may indicate insider knowledge. Focuses on markets where non-public information is plausible — political decisions, regulatory rulings, corporate announcements, legal outcomes.

1. Market Selection

Two-tier candidate selection identifies markets where insider activity is plausible:

• Priority 1: Markets matching insider-prone keywords (any volume): executive order, pardon, veto, nomination, cabinet, appointment, tariff, sanctions, FDA approval, SEC ruling, FTC, FCC, EPA ruling, indictment, verdict, settlement, guilty, convicted, earnings, merger, acquisition, IPO, airdrop, hack, exploit
• Priority 2: Markets with volume > $100K (whales also trade high-volume markets)

All candidates must have: price between 5¢ and 95¢, active outcome tokens, not yet resolved.

2. Whale Trade Detection

For each candidate market, the 200 most recent trades are fetched from the Polymarket CLOB API. The median trade size (in USD) is calculated, then each trade is evaluated. A trade is flagged as a "whale" if it meets both conditions:

• Trade size ≥ 10x the median trade size for that market
• Trade size ≥ $2,500 USD (absolute floor)

Whale trades are then clustered by wallet address to identify accumulated positions. A trade is marked contrarian if the whale is betting against consensus: buying YES below 25¢ or selling YES above 75¢ (and vice versa for NO).

"Size" on the dashboard = total USD of all whale-qualifying trades by that address in that market. "Trades" = number of individual whale-qualifying trades by that address.

3. Insider Score (0–100)

Each whale address gets a composite score from 5 factors:

Timing Opportunities

Finds announcement-driven markets closing soon where the answer may be knowable before the market fully prices it in.

Pipeline

1. Identify — find markets closing within 48h that are announcement-driven (FDA, court, earnings, policy, etc.)
2. Filter — exclude sports, entertainment, weather (outcomes with instant mass awareness)
3. Score — off-hours close, urgency, price uncertainty, region relevance, resolution source
4. Research — Polly analyzes top candidates to hunt for the answer
5. Signal — if Polly finds an edge, creates an opportunity with trade direction

The key insight: the outcome often becomes known (via announcement, filing, press release) before the market fully adjusts — especially during off-hours when fewer traders are watching.

AI Research (Information Asymmetry)

Uses Polly (local Ollama) to deeply research individual markets and estimate the true probability, looking for cases where the crowd is wrong.

Candidate Selection

• Closing within 7 days (near-term, actionable)
• Announcement-driven categories: politics, economics, finance, technology, science, crypto, legal
• Excludes: sports, entertainment, pop culture, esports
• Mid-range prices: not near-certain (<5¢ or >95¢)

Research Process

Polly analyzes each candidate by:

1. Identifying what data/evidence determines the outcome
2. Checking historical base rates and precedents
3. Assessing current conditions and recent developments
4. Identifying crowd blind spots and biases
5. Generating a calibrated probability estimate

An opportunity is created when the weighted edge exceeds 8% (edge = |AI probability − market price|, weighted by confidence: high=1.0, medium=0.6, low=0.3).

Paper Trading

High-confidence opportunities are automatically paper traded to validate strategies before risking real capital.

• Starting bankroll: $1,000 (simulated)
• Max position: 10% of bankroll per trade ($100 cap)
• Auto-trade threshold: edge ≥ 5%, confidence ≥ 50%
• Max total exposure: 50% of bankroll ($500)
• Simulated 2% winner fee (Polymarket fee structure)
• Auto-closes on market resolution or expiry

Signal Lifecycle

Actionable opportunities are published as agent-consumable trading signals for automated execution.

• Generated from opportunities with edge ≥ 5% and confidence ≥ 50%
• Signals expire after 4 hours or at market close (whichever is sooner)
• Includes CLOB token ID for direct Polymarket execution
• Stale signals cleaned up every 15 minutes
• Opportunities expire after 24 hours if not acted upon

Signal Lifecycle

Detected → Actionable (paper trade entered) → Signal Published → Expired / Resolved